CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2016-17 season complete a surprising fall for a first-year show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Elementary (O)||🐻 🐻||0.65||-0.05|
|Training Day (some Sat.)||🐻||0.62||-0.08|
|Code Black (O)||🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|The Odd Couple (O)||🐻 🐻||1.01||0.31|
|Ransom (Sat.)||🐻 🐻||0.42||-0.10|
|Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O)||🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Life in Pieces||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
|Criminal Minds (O)||Renewed||1.38||0.68|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||Renewed||1.15||0.94|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||Renewed||1.17||0.97|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||Renewed||1.08||0.84|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||Renewed||1.32||0.62|
|2 Broke Girls||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Man with a Plan (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
|Superior Donuts (O)||Renewed||1.23||0.53|
|The Great Indoors (O)||🐻 🐻||1.46||0.76|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||Renewed||1.65||0.95|
|The Big Bang Theory||Renewed||3.15||2.45|
|Madam Secretary (O)||Renewed||0.91||0.21|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||Renewed||1.19||0.49|
When your network changes your timeslot with just two episodes to go in the season, that’s probably not a good sign.
That is exactly what CBS did to “The Great Indoors,” shifting its final two episodes of the season to Monday nights. The network may want to see if the show can hold its own there, but more likely it’s a prelude to cancellation. Thus the Bear downgrades “The Great Indoors” from tossup to likely goner.
It’s a somewhat surprising development, if the Bear’s honest. Yes, “The Great Indoors” underperformed its time period relative to last season. But it was still one of CBS’ better-performing comedies and an in-house production to boot.
The show was left out of the network’s early renewals, however, suggesting CBS wasn’t all that high on it. This last-minute move to Mondays feels like, if not the last nail in the coffin, then one of the final two or three.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.