Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2018-19 season, with one veteran show’s triumphant return very likely earning it a renewal.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.2
REL 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.2
The Gifted (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.3
The Resident (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.5
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.5
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.6
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.8
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.8
9-1-1 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.6 1.0
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.3
The Cool Kids (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 1.55
Last Man Standing (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.8 1.97

 

ABC may have let “Last Man Standing” go in 2017, but if its season 7 premiere ratings are any indication, it doesn’t look like FOX will be making the same decision this year.

Its 1.8 rating in the adults 18-49 demo was the show’s highest-rated episode in six years, and was FOX’s second-highest rated premiere for the week, just behind “Empire” (1.9). So the Bear doesn’t have any trouble predicting that “Last Man Standing” will be returning on FOX next year, assuming it continues to perform anywhere near as well as it did this past Friday.

Things aren’t looking quite as good for “Lethal Weapon” (0.8) and “The Gifted” (0.9), which thanks to their low season premieres, have become renewal tossups for the time being. With the recent news that star Damon Wayans will apparently be “quitting” it at the end of its current third season too, the future of “Lethal Weapon” is looking more and more uncertain.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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