Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of 2017-18. A new series looks to be safe for the time being.
| Show | Status | 18-49 rating |
Renew/Cancel Index
|
| The Exorcist (F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.5 | 0.02 |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| The Mick (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| The Last Man on Earth (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Gotham | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Lethal Weapon | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| The Orville (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Bob’s Burgers (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Family Guy (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Ghosted (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Star (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Empire (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| The Simpsons | Renewed | 1.4 | 0.7 |
“The Orville” has aired four episodes so far, but just one in season, which is what the Bear cares about. It did … OK. The show’s 1.1 rating at least held even with the last preseason airing against stiffer competition.
That — and the fact that it’s from Seth MacFarlane, who has a long and profitable partnership with FOX — is what makes “The Orville” a likely renewal. At least for now.
The margin for error is not huge for “The Orville” — “Pitch” started with a 1.1 last season, too. But MacFarlane’s involvement gives it a cushion the former show didn’t have.
“The Orville” is safe for now, but the Bear will keep a close eye on it.
Key:
| DSW | Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing | ||||
| 🐻 | sure bet to be canceled by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 | likely to be canceled by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 | tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | likely to be renewed by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | sure bet to be renewed by May 2018 | ||||
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
