Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2017-18 season, which puzzle out the status of a comedy series.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.11|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.64||-0.06|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.79||0.09|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.89||0.19|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.37||0.67|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.94||1.24|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||1.0||0.3|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.56||0.86|
We get here every season, don’t we? The fall blitz is winding down, and “The Last Man on Earth” is still nigh inscrutable in terms of ratings performance.
The show is hanging around a little above replacement level, down from last season but not by an unsightly amount. It’s FOX’s lowest-rated Sunday show, but it’s also higher-rated than either of the network’s Tuesday comedies. It streams on Hulu but doesn’t seem a likely candidate for traditional syndication.
Despite that, however, the Bear has a gut feeling that FOX will give “Last Man” one more run next season. The network’s comedy bench is thin, and a new show in that Sunday spot isn’t likely to pull in any better numbers.
That’s not the most ringing of endorsements, but it should be enough to get “The Last Man on Earth” through.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.