Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2017-18 season, which are a little puzzled by a first-year show.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.11|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.65||-0.05|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.79||0.09|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.02||0.32|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.27||0.57|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.92||0.22|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.34||0.64|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.92||1.22|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||0.99||0.29|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.64||0.94|
The Bear isn’t making any changes to his prediction that “The Gifted” will return next season (see Disney-related caveat at the end of the post). But the relative silence about the show from FOX has been … curious, at least.
The network apparently isn’t extending the show’s run this season, nor has it made any kind of announcement about a second season. Given the heavier-than-usual post-production load on “The Gifted,” one would think any kind of early jump on a new season would be welcome.
Granted, the show hasn’t helped itself much by going under 1.0 in each of its past three episodes, and there’s the general uncertainty about the future of the network. Still, “The Gifted” seems a likely renewal, all other things equal. FOX apparently isn’t ready to pull the lever yet.
One note: The Bear is proceeding for the moment as though FOX will be under its current management next season. The pending merger of FOX’s sister studio with Disney may affect predictions further down the line.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.