Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 15 of the 2017-18 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.11|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.65||-0.05|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.79||0.09|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.17|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|LA to Vegas (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.27||0.57|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.90||0.20|
|The Gifted (O)||Renewed||1.01||0.31|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.34||0.64|
|9-1-1 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.92||1.22|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||0.99||0.29|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.76||1.06|
FOX’s new Ryan Murphy drama “9-1-1” got a strong start last week, pulling in the third-best drama series premiere ratings of the season to date. It starts as a likely renewal on the Bear’s list.
Just as important, however, is the fact that for the next year or so, it will be business as usual at FOX. What happens to the network after the sale of its sister studio and other 21st Century Fox assets to Disney closes is anyone’s guess, and indeed, there may be less real estate for scripted shows at “New Fox.”
But the deal isn’t likely to close before the 2018-19 season is well underway, which means FOX will need shows to populate its schedule. A solidly performing series from one of the company’s most important producers is a pretty good bet to fit somewhere in those plans.
One other note: As was the case in 2016, the Bear is leaving “The X-Files” out of the renew/cancel index. The desire and availability of the show’s principals are likely to be deciding factors in whether the show returns in the future moreso than ratings.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.