Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2018-19 season, and why the future of Seth MacFarlane’s sophomore sci-fi comedy already feels uncertain.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻||0.66||0.06|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.70||0.10|
|The Orville (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.33|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.39|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.58|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.57|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.65|
|9-1-1 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.78|
|The Cool Kids (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.80|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.53||0.93|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.60||1.00|
|Last Man Standing (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||1.19|
Just a few weeks into its second season, and things already aren’t looking good for “The Orville.”
The season 2 premiere of Seth MacFarlane’s sci-fi comedy earned a solid 1.5 rating among adults 18-49 with the help of an NFL lead-in, but hasn’t been able to find much success in its usual Thursday night time slot since then. Its last two episodes have scored 0.6 and 0.7s, already putting it below its first season’s 0.9 season low.
Should it continue to garner those kinds of numbers in the coming weeks, that’ll put it on par with FOX’s other lowest-rated shows, “Lethal Weapon,” “The Gifted,” and “REL,” all of which are likely cancellations this year.
Now, with that being said, MacFarlane still maintains a strong working relationship with FOX, “The Orville” has been doing well in delayed viewing, and back in December, the show was given a solid California tax credit incentive to go along with its possible third season.
None of those things guarantee that the series will be renewed, and if “The Orville” continues to perform as poorly Thursday nights as it has been so far this year – or sinks even lower – then the Bear would have a hard time believing it’ll still be around for a third season. So for now, he’s leaving it as a tossup, but will be monitoring its performance closely moving forward.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.