Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2018-19 season, and some thoughts on how “The Passage’s” second season chances are shaping up so far.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Gotham Final Season 0.68 0.08
REL (O) 🐻 0.65 0.05
The Gifted (O) 🐻 🐻 0.64 0.04
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 0.70 0.10
The Orville (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.84 0.24
The Resident (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.39
The Passage (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.47
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.57
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.18 0.58
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.25 0.65
9-1-1 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.78
The Cool Kids (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.80
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.93
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.60 1.00
Last Man Standing (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.25 1.19

 

Just three weeks into its first season, “The Passage” is already very close to moving into tossup territory.

After premiering with a solid (but not necessarily strong) 1.3 rating in adults 18-49, the series fell three-tenths in its second week, and another tenth in its third. That puts it on par with how its Monday night lead-in, “The Resident,” has been performing this season, but only if it can level out a little in the ratings.

Should “The Passage” fall much further than it already has, then the Bear will start to feel increasingly less certain about it getting a second season. As of right now, it’s early enough in its run for “The Passage” to still be a likely renewal, but the Bear will be keeping a close eye on its performance in the coming weeks.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

blog comments powered by Disqus