FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 2 of the 2016-17 season put the light on a scarily large dropoff for a new drama.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.44
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.65
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.25 0.55
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.0 1.3
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.1 1.4
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.95 3.25
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5

 

“The Exorcist” didn’t exactly burst out of the gate with its premiere, but it put up a respectable-for-Friday 1.0 rating.

Then it fell 40 percent in week 2. That is a proverbial pea-soup vomit of a second-week drop right there.

The show is in a low-risk timeslot, so if it keep from crab-walking any lower, the network will probably tolerate it for the remainder of the fall. But a 0.6 is what “World’s Funniest” did last season on Fridays, for presumably a fraction of what “The Exorcist” costs to make each week.

That’s pretty scary stuff.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • https://themorningupdate.wordpress.com/2016/10/04/the-morning-update-for-tuesday-october-4-2016/ The Morning Update for Tuesday, October 4, 2016. | The Morning Update

    […] TVBTN: Cancel Bear vs. FOX, week 2: ‘The Exorcist’ is looking pretty frightful “The Exorcist” didn’t exactly burst out of the gate with its premiere, but it put up a […]

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