FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2016-17 season pump the brakes a little for a new show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
| Show | Status | 18-49 rating | Renew/Cancel Index |
| Bones (O) | Final season | 0.83 | 0.13 |
| Scream Queens (O) | 🐻 | 0.61 | -0.09 |
| Rosewood (some F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.71 | 0.12 |
| The Exorcist (F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.67 | 0.26 |
| Sleepy Hollow (F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| The Last Man on Earth (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.98 | 0.28 |
| Pitch (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.85 | 0.15 |
| Son of Zorn (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.23 | 0.53 |
| Lucifer | Renewed | 1.08 | 0.38 |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.99 | 0.29 |
| New Girl (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.95 | 0.25 |
| Gotham | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.14 | 0.44 |
| APB (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.25 | 0.55 |
| Star (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.43 | 0.73 |
| The Mick (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.36 | 0.66 |
| 24: Legacy (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 2.93 | 2.23 |
| Family Guy (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.43 | 0.73 |
| Lethal Weapon | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.63 | 0.93 |
| Empire (O) | Renewed | 3.21 | 2.51 |
| Bob’s Burgers (O) | Renewed | 1.17 | 0.47 |
| The Simpsons (O) | Renewed | 2.14 | 1.44 |
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
After “APB” had a pretty decent premiere on Feb. 6, the Bear listed it as a likely renewal.
After episode 2, the Bear realizes maybe he was a little hasty. The show is knocked back to a tossup this week.
Why? Its ratings dropped by a third in week two, falling from 1.5 to 1.0 in adults 18-49. That’s a worrisome decline right out of the gate. Leaving out shows that had post-NFL premieres, only three of the 25 other new series on the Big 4 networks had as big a decline in week 2 — and two of those, “The Good Place” and “Ransom,” aired with better lead-ins outside their usual night. (“The Exorcist” was the other.)
If this is the floor for “APB,” it might be OK, considering it’s a 20th Century Fox show. History suggests it’s not the floor, however, which could be bad news. For now “APB” in limbo.
Key:
| DSW | Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing | ||||
| 🐻 | sure bet to be canceled by May 2017 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 | likely to be canceled by May 2017 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 | tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | likely to be renewed by May 2017 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | sure bet to be renewed by May 2017 | ||||
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
