Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2018-19 season, and why one of the Bear’s early calls of the season has held strong several months later.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Family Guy (O)||Renewed||1.11||0.51|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.16||0.56|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.43||0.83|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻||0.61||0.01|
|Proven Innocent (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.47||0.07|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.11|
|The Orville (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.80||0.20|
|The Passage (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.96||0.36|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.39|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.57|
|The Cool Kids (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.74|
|9-1-1 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.78|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.53||0.93|
|Last Man Standing (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||1.09|
23 weeks into the season, and FOX’s decision to save “Last Man Standing” after it was initially canceled by ABC, continues to pay off for the network.
The Tim Allen-led comedy has been one of the network’s strongest ratings performers this season, even without the added cushion of its Friday night time slot. As a result, the Bear still considers “Last Man Standing” a sure bet to be renewed, just like he did at the start of the season.
The Bear still tentatively thinks “The Cool Kids” is a likely renewal as well, even despite its ratings drop in recent weeks. The rookie comedy series isn’t in nearly as good a position as “Last Man Standing” is, but the Bear has a feeling FOX will be willing to keep the two Friday night comedies together – for at least one more year.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.