Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2018-19 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Family Guy (O)||Renewed||1.09||0.49|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.12||0.52|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.36||0.76|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻||0.61||0.01|
|Proven Innocent (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.44||0.03|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.11|
|The Passage (O)||🐻 🐻||0.91||0.31|
|The Orville (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.78||0.18|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.38|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.56|
|The Cool Kids (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.91||0.70|
|9-1-1 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.78|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.50||0.90|
|Last Man Standing (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||1.06|
“The Passage” maintained a fairly steady ratings performance throughout its first season, but the Bear doesn’t think it will be back next year.
The show, which has hovered on the border between likely renewal and likely cancellation throughout most of its time on the air, averaged a 0.91 live + same day rating among adults 18-49 in its first season. While an OK performance for a second or third-year show, that doesn’t leave “The Passage” with hardly any room to fall if it were to come back next year.
Considering FOX’s current scripted programming strategy, and the fact that the network will be adding “WWE Smackdown” to its weekly lineup next season, the Bear has a feeling FOX won’t consider that 0.91 average enough of a reason to give “The Passage” a second season. It’s likely to be canceled.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.