FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 25 of the 2016-17 season bring good news for a third-year show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.8||0.1|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.13|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.51||0.03|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.95||1.25|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.38||0.68|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.11||0.41|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||2.0||1.3|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
Note: Because of Nielsen delays, averages for Sunday shows are through March 5. March 12 ratings will be factored in next week.
“The Last Man on Earth” was off FOX’s schedule for three months, and it wasn’t exactly a smash to begin with, hovering at or just below a 1.0 among adults 18-49. The long layoff, however, didn’t really send viewers drifting away for good.
The show returned last week to slightly better numbers than when it left. That steadiness, and the fact that FOX owns the show that will be at 50 or so episodes by season’s end, is enough to bump “The Last Man on Earth” up to a likely return next fall.
None of FOX’s live-action comedies are big draws, but if it’s likely that “New Girl” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” will return (and it is) with similar ratings, then it’s likely “Last Man” will as well.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.