Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2018-19 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Gifted||🐻 🐻||0.61||0.01|
|Proven Innocent (F)||🐻 🐻||0.43||0.01|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.11|
|The Passage||🐻 🐻||0.91||0.31|
|The Orville||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.76||0.16|
|Star||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.55|
|The Cool Kids (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.89||0.67|
|Empire||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.47||0.87|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||1.03|
Before the Bear gets into the main point of discussion for today’s FOX post, it is worth noting that earlier this week, the network officially renewed “9-1-1” and “The Resident” for their third seasons. The news didn’t come as much of a surprise to the Bear, as he had been calling both shows likely renewals all season.
The Bear feels just as confident that “Empire” will be coming back next season as well. The show’s 1.47 L+SD average rating among adults 18-49 this season makes it FOX’s highest-rated scripted series, and places it second-highest in the renew/cancel index, behind only “Last Man Standing.”
As a result, the Bear sees no reason why FOX would want to say goodbye to “Empire.” It’s likely to be renewed, and has been all season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.