FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2016-17 season turn thoughts to spring (training).
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.79||0.09|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.13|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.96||0.26|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.77||0.07|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.81||1.11|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.34||0.64|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.06||0.36|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.88||1.18|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
Spring training has begun in Major League Baseball, and in a couple of weeks teams will start playing games that count. Had FOX stuck to its initial plan for this season, now is also around the time we’d all be seeing a new drama set in and around MLB called “Pitch.”
Instead, FOX — maybe influenced by critical praise for the “Pitch” pilot — rejiggered its schedule to put the show on in the fall, where it almost instantly took up residence on the bubble.
That, in the Bear’s opinion, was an unforced error. We’ll never know how “Pitch” would have performed in the spring had FOX stuck with its initial plan, but its 0.8-0.9 ratings might have looked better after a bunch of other broadcast shows pulled similar or worse numbers.
FOX’s parent company owns “Pitch,” which could help its chances a bit come May. It remains a tossup, however, and it may come down to how much FOX likes its pilots for next season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.