FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2016-17 season check back in with a rookie show, and the news isn’t good.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.79||0.09|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.13|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History (O)||🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.23||0.53|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.81||1.11|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.03||0.33|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.88||1.18|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
A few weeks ago, the Bear rated FOX’s new comedy “Making History” as a tossup pending more data.
More data has come in, and it’s not good. After posting a 0.9 rating for its premiere — the basis for that early tossup ranking — “Making History” has put up 0.7s for three straight weeks, pulling its average down to just above replacement level.
The show is also now coming in below “Son of Zorn’s” average, even if you take out the artificial inflation “Zorn” enjoyed on NFL lead-in weeks. “Making History” is therefore downgrading to a likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.