Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2018-19 season. Plus, the Bear shares why he’s still having a difficult time predicting the future of “The Orville.”
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Last Man Standing (F)||Renewed||1.14||1.03|
|Proven Innocent (F)||🐻 🐻||0.42||0.00|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.11|
|The Passage||🐻 🐻||0.91||0.31|
|The Orville||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.15|
|Star||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.10||0.50|
|The Cool Kids (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.64|
|Empire||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.40||0.80|
The Bear still doesn’t know how to feel about “The Orville.”
On one hand, the Seth MacFarlane-led sci-fi series hasn’t done particularly well in the live + same day ratings this season, with a 0.75 average rating among adults 18-49. So if the Bear were to only take into account the show’s ratings, he’d be calling it a likely cancellation.
On the other hand, MacFarlane has quite a bit of clout at FOX, and a nice California tax credit has already been approved for the show’s third season (should it be renewed), which makes its future much more difficult to predict. Right now, the Bear is leaning towards “The Orville” being renewed, based on the reasons listed above, but he’s not quite confident enough to officially call it a likely renewal. For now, he’s leaving it as a tossup.
In other news, FOX handed out some notable renewals and cancellations over the past few days, all of which were in line with the Bear’s predictions. The network canceled both “Rel” and “The Gifted” after their first and second seasons, respectively, and renewed “Last Man Standing” for its eighth.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.