Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2018-19 season, as one freshman comedy’s renewal chances continue to dwindle.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Rel (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.07|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.77||0.17|
|The Gifted (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.77||0.17|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.43|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.07||0.47|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.10||0.5|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.30||0.7|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.40||0.8|
|9-1-1 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.50||0.9|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.67||1.07|
|The Cool Kids (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.20||1.12|
|Last Man Standing (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.50||1.55|
The more time it spends on the air, the worse the future looks for “REL.”
After posting a 0.8 with its Sunday night time-period premiere, the freshman comedy has been experiencing a steady ratings decline. It lost a tenth with its second episode, and fell another two-tenths to a 0.5 in week 3. It’s FOX’s lowest-rated comedy this season, and barring any sudden ratings improvements, the Bear has no problem calling “Rel” a likely cancellation this year.
The Bear is also keeping “Lethal Weapon” as a tossup for now, thanks to Fox’s order of 2 additional episodes last week, both of which will feature star Damon Wayans. The current consensus seems to be that Wayans and Fox have come to an agreement behind-the-scenes to make the production conditions better for him, with both parties leaving the door open for a possible fourth season renewal.
Should “Lethal Weapon” continue to hold as well in the ratings as it has been so far this year too, its future could be looking slightly less grim than it did a few weeks ago… if just enough to keep it from being a likely or sure bet for cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.