FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2016-17 season don’t have a ton of faith in a second-year show.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.40
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.15
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.37
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.65
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.47
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.8 1.1
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.97 1.27
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.77 3.07
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5

 

The line on “Scream Queens” last season was that though its traditional ratings were soft, it made up for that with DVR and on-demand viewing, streaming and over-performance among adults under 35.

This season, it’s not looking that great. The show is still rated a tossup for now, but it’s running way behind its first two episodes last year (0.85 vs. 1.55) and below the first-season average of 1.1. DVRs and streaming won’t make that up — seven days of delayed viewing only got episode 2 back to its same-day number from a year ago.

The sample size is still a little small to move the show out of tossup land, but “Scream Queens” is hereby placed on notice.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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