FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2016-17 season don’t have a ton of faith in a second-year show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.77||0.40|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.07||0.37|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.47|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.97||1.27|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.77||3.07|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.2||0.5|
The line on “Scream Queens” last season was that though its traditional ratings were soft, it made up for that with DVR and on-demand viewing, streaming and over-performance among adults under 35.
This season, it’s not looking that great. The show is still rated a tossup for now, but it’s running way behind its first two episodes last year (0.85 vs. 1.55) and below the first-season average of 1.1. DVRs and streaming won’t make that up — seven days of delayed viewing only got episode 2 back to its same-day number from a year ago.
The sample size is still a little small to move the show out of tossup land, but “Scream Queens” is hereby placed on notice.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.