FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2016-17 season put two shows within the Bear’s reach.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.81||0.11|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.11|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History (O)||🐻 🐻||0.72||0.02|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Shots Fired (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻||0.81||0.11|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.15||0.45|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.01||0.31|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.83||1.13|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
The Bear is still in tossup-removal mode, and two more FOX shows are getting downgraded to likely cancellations this week: rookies “APB” and “Pitch.”
“APB” has been barely keeping its head above water since the early going. After three straight weeks at sub-replacement level ratings, though, it’s time to put the cop show in lockup.
“Pitch” is now also looking like a goner. The show wasn’t the lowest-rated of FOX’s first-year dramas this season — though that’s damning with faint praise — but it has faded from view since finishing in December. There have been reports as well that staff are being released from contracts.
That adds up to “Pitch” being put on waivers, and thus the Bear downgrades it along with “APB.”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.