Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2017-18 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|New Girl (O)||Final season||0.65||-0.05|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.11|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻||0.72||0.02|
|The Mick (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.04|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.81||0.11|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.02||0.32|
|LA to Vegas (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|The Resident (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.38|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Ghosted (O)||🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.16|
|The Gifted (O)||Renewed||1.01||0.31|
|Star (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.35||0.65|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.91||1.21|
|The Orville (O)||Renewed||0.99||0.29|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.55||0.85|
The change to “Lethal Weapon” has nothing to do with its ratings, but rather with a report Monday that the show is considering what to do with one of its leads, Clayne Crawford.
The (thinly sourced, the Bear notes) report claims Crawford has caused problems on set, to the point that recasting his part is being considered. Both FOX and producer Warner Bros. have declined comment, and the story hasn’t moved forward at all since the initial report.
The Bear prefers to focus just on a show’s ratings in determining its chances of renewal. That’s not always possible. For now, “Lethal Weapon” moves back into limbo. subject to change in the next couple weeks.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.