Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2018-19 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Last Man Standing (F)||Renewed||1.13||1.02|
|Proven Innocent (F)||🐻 🐻||0.41||-0.01|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻||0.71||0.11|
|The Passage||🐻 🐻||0.91||0.31|
|The Orville||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.74||0.14|
|Star||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.48|
|The Cool Kids (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.63|
“Lethal Weapon” may not have been included when FOX canceled both “The Gifted” and “REL” a few weeks ago, but that doesn’t mean the action series has avoided the chopping block this year.
Several months after “Lethal Weapon” concluded its third season, the Damon Wayans-led series remains a likely cancellation. The series, which dropped to a 0.71 live + same day average rating in the adults 18-49 demo this year, has been plagued by production troubles throughout its first three seasons on the air.
Combining the show’s lukewarm ratings performance, with the fact that it’s not FOX-owned, and is still at risk of losing the second of its original two stars after this season, it seems like there’s too much going against the series for it to be renewed. The Bear doubts that even the third season rule will be able to save it, which means “Lethal Weapon” has probably reached the end of its run.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.