FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2016-17 season say a rookie show will live up to its billing as an event series.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bones (O)||Final season||0.81||0.11|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻||0.61||-0.09|
|Rosewood (some F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.11|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.26|
|Sleepy Hollow (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Making History (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.0|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Shots Fired (O)||🐻 🐻||0.96||0.26|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|APB (O)||🐻 🐻||0.79||0.09|
|The Mick (O)||Renewed||1.15||0.45|
|24: Legacy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||0.99||0.29|
|The Simpsons (O)||Renewed||1.83||1.13|
*The index number for “Rosewood” is a weighted average of its performance on Thursdays and Fridays.
FOX has only ever referred to “Shots Fired” as an “event series.” But let’s face it: Had the show become a runaway hit, the network and the show’s creators would probably have figured out a way to make a second season.
Ratings haven’t taken off — the show is just under a 1.0 thus far, a little below FOX’s scripted average. It’s also probably a long shot in terms of awards recognition as it will compete in a stacked limited series field opposite “The Night Of,” “Fargo,” “Big Little Lies” and others.
As it stands, then, “Shots Fired” is unlikely to return. FOX will be true to its initial word and not stretch the definition of limited series.
One other note: The Bear isn’t attaching a prediction to the “Prison Break” reboot. If the show’s ratings hold up, it will likely get the “X-Files” treatment in which the network’s willing to make more episodes when cast and crew are all able to do so.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.