The broadcast networks are set to unveil their 2019-20 lineups to advertisers the week of May 13. So ahead of those announcements, it’s time for the Bear to make his final renewal and cancellation predictions of the season, for all of the network shows still in limbo. Nearly every one of these shows will have their fates decided within the next several days.
The Bear’s final renewal and cancellation predictions for FOX are below. “Star” and “The Cool Kids” are both likely renewals, while “Proven Innocent” and “Lethal Weapon” look to be on the chopping block this year.
“The Orville’s” future is still a bit of a question mark, with the Bear leaning towards it being renewed, and even though the Bear thinks “The Passage” does have a small shot at renewal as well, he’s keeping it as a likely cancellation.
The “Status” column below will be updated as the network’s decisions are announced.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|Proven Innocent (F)||-0.03||3%||Canceled 5/11|
|Lethal Weapon||0.71||28%||Canceled 5/10|
|The Passage||0.91||46%||Canceled 5/10|
|The Orville||0.74||63%||Renewed 5/11|
|The Cool Kids (F)||0.60||79%||Canceled 5/10|
Already renewed: “The Resident,” “Family Guy,” “Bob’s Burgers,” “The Simpsons,” “9-1-1,” “Last Man Standing,” “Empire”
Already canceled: “The Gifted,” “REL”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.