The broadcast networks will present their 2018-19 lineups to advertisers the week of May 14. Ahead of that, the Bear makes his last predictions for renewal or cancellation for shows still in limbo. Nearly every such show will have its future determined in the next few days.
FOX’s long-term future is very cloudy, but for now the network is acting as you’d expect it to around this time of year. As such the Bear didn’t change his approach to the final renewal odds below. The “Status” column will be updated as decisions are announced.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|Ghosted (O)||0.48||5%||Canceled 6/28|
|The Exorcist (O)||-0.11||10%||Canceled 5/11|
|LA to Vegas (O)||0.03||21%||Canceled 5/21|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||0.03||35%||Canceled 5/10|
|The Mick (O)||0.04||60%||Canceled 5/10|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||0.09||67%||Canceled 5/10|
|Lethal Weapon||0.3||75%||Renewed 5/13|
|Star (O)||0.63||90%||Renewed 5/10|
|Family Guy (O)||0.45||90%||Renewed|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||0.35||95%||Renewed|
Already renewed: “9-1-1,” “Empire,” “The Gifted,” “The Orville,” “The Resident,” “The Simpsons”
Ending: “New Girl”
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.