The broadcast networks announce their 2017-18 schedules the week of May 15, so it’s time for the Bear’s last predictions for renewal or cancellation. Nearly every series still in limbo will know its fate by the end of this week.
Renewal chances for FOX shows are below. The Bear stands by the prediction that “24: Legacy” will get another shot, as will “The Last Man on Earth,” “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” and “New Girl.” “Son of Zorn” is just barely on the right side of the line, while the likes of “Sleepy Hollow” and “Making History” are on their way out. The Status column will update as decisions come in.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|Scream Queens||-0.09||3%||Canceled 5/15|
|Making History||-0.02||5%||Canceled 5/11|
|Sleepy Hollow||0.02||10%||Canceled 5/9|
|The Exorcist||0.26||33%||Renewed 5/12|
|Son of Zorn||0.48||55%||Canceled 5/11|
|The Last Man on Earth||0.91||65%||Renewed 5/10|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||0.21||75%||Renewed 5/12|
|New Girl||0.23||78%||Renewed 5/14|
Already renewed: “Bob’s Burgers,” “Empire,” “Lethal Weapon,” “Lucifer,” “The Mick,” “The Simpsons,” “Star”
Already canceled/ended: “Bones,” “Pitch”
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.