Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2019-20 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Bless the Harts||Renewed||0.90||0.40|
|Almost Family||🐻 🐻||0.67||0.17|
|The Resident||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.73||0.23|
|Bob’s Burgers||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.35|
|Family Guy||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.88||0.38|
|Prodigal Son||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.43|
|911||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.58||1.08|
FOX has gotten off to an undoubtedly strong start this season, but that doesn’t mean all of its scripted shows have been winners.
Even despite having “The Masked Singer” as its lead-in, “Almost Family” has failed to impress with its ratings this fall. Three episodes into its freshman run, the series has averaged only a 0.67 live + same day rating among adults 18-49, making it FOX’s lowest-rated show on the air right now.
It’s hard not to see “Almost Family” as the weak link in FOX’s fall lineup, and therefore, the likeliest candidate to be canceled. So that’s what the Bear is calling it.
It’s also worth noting that FOX has already gone ahead and handed out an early season 2 renewal for “Bless the Harts.” While the Bear had not yet gotten the chance to talk about the rookie animated comedy, he was calling it a likely renewal from the get-go, and his prediction turned out to be right.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2020|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2019-20 season, replacement level is a 0.5 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.5 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.