FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2016-17 season finds the network in a Catch-22 of its own making.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Rosewood (O)||🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|The Exorcist (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.74||0.36|
|The Last Man on Earth (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|Scream Queens (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Pitch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.28|
|New Girl (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|Son of Zorn (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Lucifer||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Gotham||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Family Guy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|The Simpsons (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.0||1.3|
|Lethal Weapon||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.9||1.2|
|Empire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.7||3.0|
|Bob’s Burgers (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.57|
“Rosewood” put up decent ratings for the first half of last season, and its renewal wasn’t a huge surprise considering the hole FOX had to fill with “American Idol” leaving the schedule.
But its anemic performance this season also isn’t any surprise. When it aired away from “Empire” last season, “Rosewood” struggled to make it to the 1.0 mark in adults 18-49. Expecting it to lead off a night this season and do any kind of business was foolishness on FOX’s part.
It’s now looking like “Rosewood” will be done after a second season. It’s languishing in fourth place on Thursday nights and has about zero chance of making any kind of leap for the rest of the fall. The show is filling a spot, which is about all FOX needs from it now. Beyond that — well, it’s not likely there is anything beyond that.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.