FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 7 of the 2016-17 season are not thrilled at the long-term prospects for a rookie comedy.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Rosewood (O) 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
The Exorcist (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.72 0.33
The Last Man on Earth (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
Scream Queens (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
Pitch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
New Girl (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Son of Zorn (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.52
Lucifer 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.37
Gotham 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.4 0.7
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.2
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 3.7 3.0
Bob’s Burgers (O) Renewed 1.2 0.5
The Simpsons (O) Renewed 1.9 1.2

 

“Son of Zorn” is putting up ratings that are pretty average for FOX. It has a 1.22 rating in adults 18-49 through four episodes; the network’s scripted average thus far is 1.31.

Still, the show is underperforming, both relative to the ratings for its timeslot last year and to those of its lead-in, “The Simpsons.” It’s staying in tossup territory for the moment, but it’s trending toward the unlikely side of things.

Through its first five episodes last season in the same spot, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” had a 1.58 rating. “Son of Zorn” is running about 23 percent behind that. “Brooklyn” retained about 77 percent of its “Simpsons” lead-in; “Zorn” keeps only about 64 percent of its lead-in.

Those aren’t good numbers. “The Simpsons” isn’t going anywhere until at least 2019, and the Bear tips his paw to the show. It’s looking less like “Son of Zorn” will be joining it.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/11/09/i-dont-know-how-to-process-anything-right-now-so-lets-talk-about-tv-news-and-pretend-that-everything-is-ok/ I don’t know how to process anything right now so let’s talk about TV news and pretend that everything is OK. – foolish watcher

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