Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2018-19 season, and things aren’t looking good for one of its veteran dramas.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
REL (O) 🐻 0.61 0.01
The Gifted (O) 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.09
Lethal Weapon 🐻 🐻 0.70 0.10
The Resident (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.41
Family Guy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.09 0.49
Bob’s Burgers (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.56
Star (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.57
9-1-1 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.40 0.80
The Simpsons (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.41 0.81
The Cool Kids (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.89
Empire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.93
Last Man Standing (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 1.32

 

After feeling unsure about it earlier in the season, the Bear has become fairly confident that “Lethal Weapon” will likely be canceled this year.

The third-year drama has been averaging a 0.70 so far this fall, three-tenths below its second season average, and is currently tied with “The Gifted” as FOX’s lowest-rated show. So with those numbers, and Damon Wayans’ comments about quitting after this season, The Bear has a hard time believing  “Lethal Weapon” will be coming back for a fourth season.

Meanwhile, the Bear still thinks “Last Man Standing” is a sure bet to be renewed, even despite its slight ratings decline. Freshman comedy, “The Cool Kids,” also remains a likely renewal.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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