Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2018-19 season, with an easy early call for one of the season’s freshman drama breakouts.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.4|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.5|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.6|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.6|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.7|
|New Amsterdam (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.2|
|Manifest||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.2||1.6|
|This is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||3.0||2.4|
The series premiere of “Manifest” was not only the first Monday night show on NBC to actually improve upon its “Voice” lead-in (2.2 vs. 2.0), but was also premiere week’s highest-rated series debut.
Its 2.2 rating among adults 18-49 was almost one whole point higher than what “The Brave” premiere (1.3) scored in the same time slot last year, and was NBC’s best performance in the Monday hour in total viewers in almost three years. As a result, the Bear is confident in saying that “Manifest” is a very likely renewal. Should it hold close to its premiere level ratings in the coming weeks too, it’ll graduate to lock status.
NBC’s other new drama title, “New Amsterdam,” may not have made as big a splash as “Manifest” did, but its season 2 chances are looking good as well.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.