Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 16 of the 2017-18 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.94||0.24|
|Taken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.5||0.02|
|The Brave||🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|Great News (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Law & Order True Crime (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.04||0.34|
|Blindspot (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.29||0.59|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.13||0.43|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.30||0.60|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||1.80||1.10|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.78||2.08|
Paws up, anyone who’s surprised “Taken” fared poorly in its second-season premiere on Friday.
No one, then? Sounds about right. “Taken” had fairly weak numbers last season — and renewed largely because it was a Universal TV show that was also relatively cheap (co-financed by a European partner) — and its second-season premiere was barely above replacement level, even accounting for lower TV usage on Friday.
It’s a near-ironclad rule of broadcast TV that a show that’s marginally rated in Season 1 will stay that way, or get worse, in Season 2. Inexpensive IP isn’t magic — if no one watches, it’s going away. Thus “Taken” begins as a likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.