NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 17 of the 2016-17 season suggest a comedy is doing just enough to earn a renewal.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology. (Because of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, final ratings for Friday and Sunday shows weren’t in at posting time.)
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.9||0.59|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.73|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.15||0.45|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.55|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.74|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.61|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.49||0.79|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.64||1.94|
“Superstore” is still a likely renewal for NBC, but it has more to do with the network’s bigger picture than with the show’s performance on its own.
The series hasn’t experienced any kind of January bump, coming back from a two-month layoff with ratings about equal to its final episodes in November. Considering January is among the highest TV-usage months of the year, that’s a bit disappointing.
On the other hand, it also hasn’t really fallen off, and “Superstore’s” (relatively brief) history suggests it’s likely to remain fairly steady. The Bear thinks that will be enough to get it to Season 3. “Superstore” is the closest thing NBC has to a comedy anchor at the moment, and low-but-consistent ratings are probably enough to keep it around for another season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.