Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2018-19 season, and how “The Blacklist’s” predictable ratings drop this season has impacted its renewal chances.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||0.79||0.19|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||0.83||0.23|
|Midnight, Texas (F) (O)||Canceled||0.40||-0.03|
|I Feel Bad (O)||DSW||0.49||-0.11|
|Blindspot (F)||🐻 🐻||0.48||0.09|
|The Blacklist (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.68||0.37|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.27|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.90||0.30|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.00||0.40|
|New Amsterdam (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.64|
|Manifest||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.31||0.71|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.52|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.63|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.27||0.67|
|This is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.17||1.57|
“The Blacklist” has found itself in an interesting position on NBC’s renew/cancel index.
On one hand, the show has been holding very well in the ratings, with three straight 0.6s in the adults 18-49 demo since its Friday night premiere on Jan. 4.
On the other hand, with a 0.68 L+SD average right now, the series is (predictably) down from its previous season’s 0.9 average, and can’t afford to drop much further than it has. If it does, then the show’s standings in the chart will take a notable hit as well.
It is worth noting though, that even with its season-to-season drop, “The Blacklist” is still doing better than “Blindspot” (a likely cancellation) did most Friday nights on the network this past fall. So with all that being said, the Bear thinks it’s too early to make any concrete calls on the show’s future, and will be leaving it as a tossup for the time being.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.