Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 19 of the 2018-19 season, and how a rookie drama’s ratings decline hasn’t necessarily taken it out of the renewal race.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Midnight, Texas (F) (O) Canceled 0.40 -0.03
Will & Grace (O) Renewed 0.79 0.19
The Good Place (O) Renewed 0.83 0.23
New Amsterdam (O) Renewed 1.24 0.64
I Feel Bad (O) DSW 0.49 -0.11
Blindspot (F) 🐻 🐻 0.48 0.09
The Blacklist (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.64 0.32
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.27
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.90 0.30
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.35
Manifest 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.31 0.71
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.52
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.63
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.67
This is Us 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.17 1.57

 

NBC may not have renewed as many shows throughout the past week as ABC or the CW did, but the network did have one notable pickup for the 2019-20 TV season with the renewal of “New Amsterdam.”

One of NBC’s highest-rated dramas this season, the Bear was calling “New Amsterdam” a likely renewal from the start of the season, especially after its early full-season pickup. Since then, the series has managed a commendably strong and steady ratings performance, and NBC’s decision to bring it back for a second season didn’t come as much of a surprise.

The same certainty can’t completely be given to “Manifest,” the network’s only other rookie drama of the season, despite it getting off to an even stronger start than “New Amsterdam” did initially.

Throughout its first season, the series has suffered a much more drastic ratings decline than “Amsterdam,” and has gradually fallen from its premiere’s massive 2.2 rating in adults 18-49 to the 1.0s and 0.9s it is currently averaging Monday nights.

But even with all that being said, the Bear still believes “Manifest” has a good chance at coming back next season. Its L+SD ratings performance may be lower than NBC had wanted, but the show is still the season’s no. 1 freshman drama, and has been doing exceedingly well in delayed viewing. For those reasons alone, the Bear is keeping “Manifest” as a likely renewal.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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