Cancel Bear vs. NBC, week 20: ‘The Blacklist’ should live to spy another day

Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 20 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Taken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.48 -0.01
The Brave 🐻 🐻 0.91 0.21
Great News (O) 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.03
AP Bio (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
Law & Order True Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
Blindspot (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.67 0.26
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 0.51
Superstore (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.43
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.29 0.59
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.11 0.41
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.41
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.34 0.64
Will & Grace (O) Renewed 1.7 1.0
This Is Us Renewed 3.17 2.47

 

“The Blacklist” had a bit of a wobble in late October, tying its series low two weeks in a row. The Bear had it squarely on the fence at the time.

Now, the Bear is giving Red and Co. a push over to the right side of the fence. “The Blacklist” moves up to a likely renewal.

Since the start of 2018 the show has stayed at or above the 1.0 mark in adults 18-49. Some of that is likely attributable to the TV-usage bump in January. But the fact remains that “The Blacklist” is within a couple hundredths of a point of both its average a season ago and the time-period average for its Wednesday slot from last season.

When most shows are down double digits, stability is likely to get rewarded. “The Blacklist” is probably closer to the end of its life than it is to the beginning, but the end is not yet nigh.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.