NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 22 of the 2016-17 season examine a bubble show’s prospects.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.72||0.33|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.07||0.37|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.63||1.93|
Let’s look at a couple of NBC shows from recent years.
Show 1: Produced by Warner Bros., Season 2 average 1.1 in adults 18-49, 38 episodes after Season 2.
Show 2: Produced by Warner Bros., Season 2 average 1.1, 45 episodes after Season 2.
Show 2, you have probably surmised from the headline, is “Blindspot.” Show 1 is the series it replaced in the 8 p.m. Wednesday spot this season, “The Mysteries of Laura.”
“Blindspot” was renewed very early last season on the strength of its first eight episodes, after which it declined considerably. Its ratings profile now is basically identical to that of “Laura” last season, with the exception of that episode count. “Blindspot” will have two full seasons under its belt by May.
Will that be enough for Warner Bros. and NBC to make a deal for a third season? It’s a coin flip at this point. But if the show keeps missing that 1.0 mark, it’s likely headed for the same fate as “Laura.”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.