Cancel Bear vs. NBC, week 23: ‘Good Girls’ starts in a pretty good spot

Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Taken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.48 -0.01
The Brave 🐻 🐻 0.91 0.21
Great News (O) 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.03
AP Bio (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.96 0.26
Law & Order True Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
Blindspot (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.68 0.27
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 0.51
Superstore (O) Renewed 1.11 0.41
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
Good Girls (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.5 0.8
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.11 0.41
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.41
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.65
Will & Grace (O) Renewed 1.65 0.95
This Is Us Renewed 3.13 2.43

 

Because “Good Girls” only aired one episode and because daylight saving time arrives in a week to depress TV ratings, the Bear is rating it as a tossup out of the gate. As tossups go, however, “Good Girls” is tipping toward the good side of the fence.

The show opened ahead of where “The Brave” did in 10 p.m. Monday slot in the fall and retained a little bit more of “The Voice” audience than “The Brave” did. Those are both positive signs.

The Bear doesn’t expect “Good Girls” to stay at a 1.5 for the rest of the season, but if it can hold up decently during the usual spring ratings downturn, it will get the nod for a pickup.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.