NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2016-17 season are not very high on a new addition to the lineup.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.63||1.93|
The numbers for “The Blacklist: Redemption don’t paint a very redemptive picture with its premiere. Like a number of new 10 p.m. dramas before it this season, the show put up a sub-1.0 rating for its first episode.
That’s 24 percent below the average for “Redemption’s” parent show, “The Blacklist” — which is itself down 26 percent vs. last season.
Those are not numbers NBC wants to hear when it’s trying to expand a franchise. The network’s wish to do so (and the small sample size) leaves “Redemption” as a tossup after week 1. But it’s on a very short leash.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.