NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2016-17 season show the latest addition to a franchise getting a healthy start.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.85||0.15|
|Shades of Blue (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.55||0.85|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.63||1.93|
No network TV franchise has lasted more than one season after extending itself past three related shows. The early returns on “Chicago Justice” suggest all four of Dick Wolf’s Windy City shows may be back next year.
There’s only been one four-show franchise in recent history: “Law & Order” pulled it off in 2004-05 with the original show, “SVU,” “Criminal Intent” and “Trial by Jury.” The latter was one and done after not measuring up to the ratings of the other three.
It’s early yet, but in its first two episodes “Chicago Justice” has shown to be of a piece ratings-wise with its Chicago brethren. Its 1.4 rating Sunday, away from the three-part crossover that launched it, is a good early sign that viewers will follow it to its regular home. For those reasons it’s starting life as a likely renewal.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.