NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2016-17 season look at the circumstances of a drama’s recent pickup.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Grimm (F) (O) Final season 0.79 0.43
Emerald City (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.29
The Blacklist: Redemption 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.8 0.1
Powerless 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.12
Shades of Blue (O) Renewed 0.9 0.2
Trial & Error 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
The Blacklist 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.36
Blindspot 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.09 0.39
Timeless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.42
Chicago Med (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
Superstore (O) Renewed 1.21 0.51
Chicago PD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
The Good Place (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Taken (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.63
Chicago Justice (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.32 0.62
Law & Order: SVU (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.48 0.78
Chicago Fire (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91
This Is Us Renewed 2.68 1.98

 

The Bear had “Shades of Blue” rated as a tossup for renewal in the early going, wanting to see how it performed over a longer sample. NBC had no such reservations, renewing the show two weeks into its second season.

The pickup merits a mild eyebrow raise for its speed, but it’s not a huge surprise. Shorter-run series tend to have lower ratings thresholds — 10 weeks at or slightly below a 1.0 in adults 18-49 is an easier pill to swallow than 22 weeks at that level — and NBC likely wants to stay in business with Jennifer Lopez.

The Bear will get his NBC sustenance elsewhere come spring.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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    […] Trial & Error and Taken are only looking so-so for NBC. […]

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