NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2016-17 season look at the circumstances of a drama’s recent pickup.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.79||0.43|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.1|
|Powerless||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.82||0.12|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||0.9||0.2|
|Trial & Error||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.09||0.39|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.32||0.62|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.48||0.78|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.61||0.91|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.68||1.98|
The Bear had “Shades of Blue” rated as a tossup for renewal in the early going, wanting to see how it performed over a longer sample. NBC had no such reservations, renewing the show two weeks into its second season.
The pickup merits a mild eyebrow raise for its speed, but it’s not a huge surprise. Shorter-run series tend to have lower ratings thresholds — 10 weeks at or slightly below a 1.0 in adults 18-49 is an easier pill to swallow than 22 weeks at that level — and NBC likely wants to stay in business with Jennifer Lopez.
The Bear will get his NBC sustenance elsewhere come spring.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.