NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2016-17 season don’t like the chances for a freshman series.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.78||0.08|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||0.84||0.14|
|Trial & Error||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.38|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.21||0.51|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.42||0.72|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.59||0.89|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.68||1.98|
“Powerless” is an apt title for the show it represents — everyday humans in a world where superheroes exist and are forever wrecking city blocks. It’s also a really, really easy punchline.
The show hasn’t done much of anything for NBC on Thursdays. Its season-low 0.5 rating last week was worse than reruns of “Trial & Error” (which is no smash) in the past couple weeks. It’s just a touch above replacement level, and even while NBC is in rebuild mode with its comedies, that’s not going to cut it.
“Powerless” is downgraded to a likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.