Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2018-19 season, and why one freshman comedy’s chances at a second season are growing increasingly slim.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Midnight, Texas (F) (O)||Canceled||0.40||-0.03|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||0.74||0.14|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine (O)||Renewed||0.78||0.18|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||0.83||0.23|
|The Blacklist (F)||Renewed||0.58||0.23|
|Good Girls (O)||Renewed||0.60||0.00|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||Renewed||0.86||0.26|
|Chicago PD (O)||Renewed||1.14||0.54|
|New Amsterdam (O)||Renewed||1.15||0.55|
|Chicago Med (O)||Renewed||1.24||0.64|
|Chicago Fire (O)||Renewed||1.25||0.65|
|I Feel Bad (O)||DSW||0.49||-0.11|
|Abby’s (O)||🐻 🐻||0.47||-0.13|
|A.P. Bio (O)||🐻 🐻||0.50||-0.10|
|Blindspot (F)||🐻 🐻||0.48||0.09|
|The Village (O)||🐻 🐻||0.73||0.13|
|The Enemy Within (O)||🐻 🐻||0.86||0.26|
|This is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.01||1.41|
There have been some notable updates to NBC’s renew/cancel standings since the Bear’s last post. First, the network went ahead and handed out an early renewal to “Good Girls” last week.
Given its low ratings, the Bear had called “Good Girls” a likely cancellation, but it looks like the show’s international Netflix deal and its on-demand viewing numbers were enough to keep it around for at least another year. It’s the Bear’s first incorrect call of the season so far.
NBC also renewed “Manifest” for a second season, which despite the show’s season-long ratings decline, the Bear had correctly called a likely renewal.
Now, with those two announcements, the list of NBC shows still stuck in limbo continues to grow smaller and smaller. So with that in mind, the Bear is going to go ahead and make what he believes to be an easy call today – “Abby’s” is likely to be canceled.
With a 0.47 live + same day average rating among adults 18-49, the freshman comedy is NBC’s lowest-rated show of the season, excluding the already-canceled “Midnight, Texas.” That kind of performance leaves a rookie title with little-to-no hope of being renewed, which means the first season of “Abby’s,” will probably also be its last.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.