NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2016-17 season suggest a show moving to a new night might not be a death knell, at least not yet.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Blindspot||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.6|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.5||0.8|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||0.9|
|This Is Us||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.7||2.0|
“Blindspot’s” ratings have predictably fallen off since it moved away from the safe haven of “The Voice.” Somewhat surprisingly, however, they’ve been pretty stable in the Wednesday lead-off spot.
All three of those episodes have scored a 1.3 — way short of the show’s early performance last season but in line with where it ended. It’s also been a mild upgrade over “The Mysteries of Laura” in the timeslot so far.
If — and it’s a big one — “Blindspot” can maintain that sort of number for a good portion of the season, it will likely end up at roughly average numbers for a Big 4 series. That might be enough to keep the show afloat.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.