NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 30 of the 2016-17 season consider a pair of spiritually linked shows.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||0.80||0.10|
|Trial & Error||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.36|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.41||0.71|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.07||0.37|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.41||0.71|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.58||0.88|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.68||1.98|
“The Blacklist” returns from hiatus this week to take over for its likely one-and-done spinoff, “The Blacklist: Redemption.” The parent show likely won’t suffer the same fate — it’s getting bumped up to a likely renewal.
Its spiritual descendant, “Blindspot,” however, is headed the other direction. Its fortunes have faded too much this season to make it a likely return.
“The Blacklist” has suffered this season, falling by about 26 percent vs. last season. It’s in the bottom third of NBC’s dramas in terms of ratings. And yet, given how important the show was in the network’s rebuild in recent years, the Bear believes it will get at least one more run.
“Blindspot’s” fall has been even steeper. After spending a full season following “The Voice” in 2015-16, the show was left to fend for itself on Wednesdays this season. The result: A dizzying 43 percent decline and ratings lower than “The Mysteries of Laura” had in the same spot a year ago.
“Blindspot” is cut from the same procedural-with-deep-backstory cloth as “The Blacklist” and got a similar launch in the valuable post-“Voice” slot. But “The Blacklist” has been more valuable to NBC for a longer period of time, so their fortunes diverge here. “The Blacklist” is likely to return in 2017-18, and “Blindspot” is not.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.