NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2016-17 season downgrade a pair of freshman shows.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Grimm (F) (O)||Final season||0.8||0.44|
|Emerald City (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.69||0.29|
|The Blacklist: Redemption||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Shades of Blue (O)||Renewed||0.79||0.09|
|Trial & Error||🐻 🐻||0.92||0.22|
|Great News (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.02||0.32|
|Timeless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.12||0.42|
|Chicago Med (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|The Good Place (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Taken (O)||🐻 🐻||1.02||0.32|
|Chicago Justice (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.39||0.69|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.56||0.86|
|This Is Us||Renewed||2.68||1.98|
Ratings for “Trial & Error” were not terrible during its compressed six-week run. They were also not especially good, falling a little on the wrong side of the 1.0 line.
“Taken,” meanwhile, is just above that mark for the season, but hasn’t been for an individual episode in a month. Both have been tossups for a while, but it’s time for the Bear to make a call, and the Bear believes both will be gone by season’s end.
NBC is attempting to rebuild its comedy brand with “Superstore” and “The Good Place” as foundational pieces. Neither one is what you’d call a hit, with “The Good Place” slightly above and “Superstore” a little below NBC’s scripted average for the season. The network can’t carry an even lower-rated show into next season. (The same fate may befall “Great News” as well. It’s a tossup as it’s only been on for a week, but the Bear will make an up-or-down call next week.)
“Taken” may have a slightly better chance, but it has largely squandered its plum time period retaining only about 43 percent of its “Voice” lead-in. (The 10 episodes of “Timeless” that aired after “The Voice” fared somewhat better, holding onto about 53 percent of the lead-in audience.) That pushes it down to likely cancellation.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.