Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2017-18 season, invoking a partial Third Season Rule halo on one show.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.0||0.3|
|The Brave||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Great News (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|Law & Order True Crime (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.58|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.23||0.53|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||2.13||1.43|
|This Is Us||Renewed||3.18||2.48|
“Superstore” isn’t fully covered under the Third Season Rule, since its first season lasted only 11 episodes. Still, as an NBC-owned show that will be somewhere around 50-54 episodes by the end of this season, the Bear has it as a likely renewal as a partial Third Season qualifier.
That’s a good thing for the show, because its numbers are otherwise marginal.
The show is off about 13 percent vs. last fall and is unlikely to pick up much before it leaves the air in early November for “Thursday Night Football.” But a (still) weak comedy roster at NBC and the promise of more streaming revenue (and maybe a syndication deal somewhere down the line) should keep it afloat.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.