Here are NBC’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2017-18 season, which ponder what to do with a veteran show.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Blacklist||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.96||0.26|
|The Brave||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|Great News (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.02||0.32|
|Law & Order True Crime (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Blindspot (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.7||0.30|
|Chicago PD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Superstore (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.48|
|Law & Order: SVU (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.26||0.56|
|The Good Place (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|Chicago Fire (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.22||0.52|
|Will & Grace (O)||Renewed||2.06||1.36|
|This Is Us||Renewed||3.1||2.4|
The Bear was all ready to downgrade “The Blacklist” and make an argument that this would be the show’s final season. Then the Bear remembered two things: The show isn’t down that much (0.96 in adults 18-49 vs. 1.16 this time last season), and Netflix is paying $2 million per episode for streaming rights.
Thus, the show is remaining a tossup for the time being. The Bear isn’t confident enough in a sub-1.0 rating to upgrade the show to a likely renewal, but the Netflix factor prevents a downgrade as well.
That could change, of course. But for now “The Blacklist” is the definition of a fence-sitting show.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.